President Donald Trump has many rides in 2020. If he loses, he will not simply restart his carefree lifestyle of snowbirds, though with millions of new Twitter followers, he will be subject to major bills, by refusing criminal investigations in a number of jurisdictions.
But what if he wins?
The story goes on below
The election is more than a year away, their possible impeachment over the growing scandal with Ukraine is far from resolved and, yes, numerous polls show that the president is lagging behind almost all of his likely democratic opponents. But impatient politicians are already developing a scenario that solidifies in conventional wisdom: Trump is impeached by the House, justified by the Senate and re-elected on November 3.
The prospect of four more years has already captured the fierce notions of Democrats and never of Trump Republicans. Cabinet Chairman Nancy Pelosi predicts, "Donald Trump's reelection will do irreparable damage to the United States." Even the president's own supporters envision a vicious public servant who inflates political norms with vigor to take the position of president, pleasing the position of president he has never seen.
Trump himself does not say much about what a second term would look like. Scripted legislative programs are not how he rolls. Still, if his first term taught us anything, Trump would be like a lame duck to be anything but unifying. In fact, the civil war that the president has envisioned may be visible to the hostile crowds that mutually reciprocated at the Mall in January. Then? What does a groundbreaking but unbound Trump do with his political capital? What causes the angry democratic opposition to be gone?
There is only one way to answer these questions: The POLITICO Temporary Machine.
We used him for the uninitiated once in April 2016, when Trump was not yet a Republican nominee and when most people insisted he still had no chance of winning The White House. But our group of travelers in the armchair already anticipated the possibility that the unorthodox novice would be prevented from ever taking office. Our forecasters were not that far off, given how fast Democrats began to investigate Trump after taking the House majority halfway through his first term.
OK, of course, we were a little broader than predicting that Trump would open Alcatraz and internment camps from World War II to house suspected Islamic extremists. And in early 2016, no one saw Russia, much less Ukraine, emerging as the centerpiece of the impeachment investigation. But, boy, did our brains trust their fingernails in Trump's predictions of a swimming congress to pay for its border wall; a full-fledged civil war that is developing in the intelligence community; and the presidential approval numbers crash faster than Greenland's glacier.
To further enhance conventional wisdom, we restored Time Machine travelers and added another list to the list – 25 people who knew Trump's world and GOP and democracy policies – and asked them, "What's up with Washington and the nation, if Trump opposes the chances of remaining in the White House?
"We are about to enter an era of authoritarianism," warned John Dean, former White House lawyer for Richard Nixon, whose public testimony of Watergate helped lead to the president's resignation.
This is just left hysteria, said New Gingrich, a former House speaker and Trump's outspoken ally. "No. I don't think Trump will be strengthened. I think Trump will be Trump. I think Trump is strengthening every morning. He goes, 'I'm a billionaire. I have the White House, the Air Force and the Navy. And I'm in command. What is part two? "All these guys who spent three years shooting at me, and I'm still in the building, and they're not." "
But even some Trump supporters are envisioning Trump's ability to test the boundaries of poor presidential power.
Former White House press secretary George W. Bush, Ari Fleisher, a Republican card-holder who has criticized the president but now largely supports him, said the re-elected Trump has the potential to take things too far. "I think it would be a lot like the first term with the risky exception that having lived through impeachment and being selected by people who may feel like guard rails is even further than the road he travels. I hope he realizes that the fences are there for a good purpose and if he drives too fast [he’ll] catastrophizes through them. "
At a press conference at the Rose Garden in early 1999, after the Senate acquitted him, President Bill Clinton answered a question if he could" forgive and forget, "saying," I believe that anyone who asks for forgiveness, he must be ready to give it. " According to Bob Woodward's account in his book, Shadow a reporter then shouted at the president as he walked, asking if he would take revenge on the Republicans who had just drawn him. Clinton did not turn around.
Trump "will not continue to walk," Fleisher predicts. "He'll come back to the microphone."
And what would Trump say? We will allow the time machine to speak.
The time is January 2021 . The election has left the nation with a psychological slump and a sulfur cloud of foreign hacker elections hangs over the still-contested results. The Trump scandal with Ukraine ultimately spared him, but that hurt Joe Biden enough to give Elizabeth Warren the nomination. Once again, the result came to the electoral college, but even closer than in 2016. Warren, like Hillary Clinton, four years earlier, took the popular vote by a huge margin. But this mixed sentence did nothing but further strengthen the battle lines of a civil war that became more than a metaphor.
Weeks after election day were ugly. Protests in New York, Washington, San Francisco and a dozen other cities have turned violent, a by-product of a tangled mass of disgruntled pink-hatred Democrats, MAGA supporters, left-wing antifa and far-right proud boys. People were killed. The president stirred up discord in the face of urban nuisance. And then he imposed a curfew and directed the National Guard to patrol the streets over protests from governors and mayors.
On January 20, Trump swears his oath, swearing for the second time in the Capitol's shadow that "As far as I can, I will preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States." The scene is no different from anything in the country's history. What has always been a high-security event is taking on a militaristic tone, with Trump ordering US troops to take to the streets of Washington as a demonstration of force to prevent further riots. His family surrounds him, along with a loyal base of congressional Republicans who, for a few defenses, hold on for the first four years and, most of all, vote to hold him and win impeachment. Democrats who are still boiling over Trump's gross constitutional violations are boycotting the event en masse, for the first time in modern history it has happened. Their seats are distributed in a lottery open to Trump supporters.
Something else is remarkable too. The four former presidents, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter join George W. Bush in protest against the protocol. They miss Trump's inaugural ceremony and accept Carter's invitation to distribute food to a homeless shelter in Washington, DC.
After an inaugural parade involving tanks for the first time in half a century, the president enters the White House, pulls out a handwritten list of the enemies of the people who work for him, and causes Jared Kushner to fire everyone. The list of victims includes Commerce Secretary Wilber Ross, Education Secretary Betsy DeVos and Housing and Urban Development Minister Ben Carson. Mike Pompeo and Mark Esper resigned before the election, blaming Trump for the Ukraine mess. Steve Mnuchin is the only original cabinet secretary still in Trump's good graces.
The new crop of loyalists is being hired, including former Republican Representatives Mark Meadows, Jim Jordan and Doug Collins, as well as Lindsay Graham, who is stepping down from the Senate to become the new Secretary of Defense. Brad Parskale leaves the campaign manager to become White House chief of staff, but only after Trump leaves Mick Mulvey's former job open for six months. Trump promises his longtime advisor Stephen Miller an appointment to lead the Department of Homeland Security in an active capacity during the end of his second term, when Senate confirmation will not matter to the administration of the lame duck. And the president is also planning his campaign for re-election of new employees, believing that they will be more loyal to the Frankenstein crew of the Republican National Committee, which he quickly assembled in 2017.
"You do not work to choose the person you hate to enter the White House," notes Michael Caputo, a longtime Trump adviser who agreed to join us in our traveling experiment He says the 2020 campaign is a real reward for Trump's loyal, trusting bee workers.
Following is the outcome. "Trump is completely unencumbered and 100 percent policy all the time. Payback is hell," predicted one Republican close to the White House, who demanded anonymity for their ongoing work.
As Washington freezes in late winter, Trump temporarily relocates his administration to Mar-a-Lago. He plays golf six days a week with celebrity fans Rush Limbo, Kid Rock, and Tiger Woods but finds time between rounds to hunt grenades at Twitter for anyone who cruised him during his first four years of service . Republicans are not spared, as Trump is paying attention to half a dozen senators who voted in favor of his impeachment process. He owns Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to remove Ben Sass from the Banking, Judiciary and Intelligence Committees. He is looking for 2022 GOP major challengers for Richard Burr and Lisa Murkovski. And he sees that there is no more way to pay Susan Collins or any Mormon senator from Utah.
"Romney is happy to run for re-election in 2024," says Sam Nunberg, another former aide to Trump's 2016 campaign who rides a shotgun in our time machine and sees a four-year election cycle the future, so far as to save the 2012 GOP presidential nominee from Trump's ultimate return.
Trump continues to try to lift his government in the summer of 2021. It begins to sweat the US economy in the months after the long-awaited recession became official this April with a second consecutive quarterly negative. growth. He tweets 10 times a day about how Federal Reserve Board chair Jerome Powell is responsible. He is giving one of his remaining first-term detentions, National Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow, another chance to cut the middle-class tax in hopes of turning things around.
Trump is also subjected more to his Justice Department. First, he orders the name of Robert F. Kennedy to be removed from central Washington headquarters, replacing him with Rudy Giuliani, a former mayor of New York and a personal lawyer for the president whom Trump installed as director of his reworked and celebrated Voice of America . Then Trump threatens to fire Attorney General William Bar and every U.S. attorney in the country if criminal charges are not raised by Thanksgiving against any delays by the Obama administration that played a role in the initial Russia investigation in 2016.
Trump cancels the annual turkey pardon event and replaces it with a Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn and Roger Stone Presidential Freedom Award ceremony. All three former campaign aides in 2016 were sentenced to jail for crimes involving special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia probe, but Trump believes there is room to maneuver now that he is securely in a second term and decides to clean his documents clean.
Confused and depressed by the election results in 2020, Democrats cannot figure out how to respond to every new example of Trump opposing Congress. – In the fight. The prosecution. Everything. Who! "Democratic operative James Carville says of his party's struggle to find himself after losing in 2020. Jim Manley, a longtime assistant to Harry Reed, who was with us in 2016 for the last time as we headed toward the future, provides "circular
In the House, Pelosi was the chief at the time when TV networks declared Trump the winner in November. The president had ridiculed her throughout the 2020 campaign for her leadership against him against impeachment. And while her party still clings to a narrow majority of the House, a San Francisco congresswoman decides to call her quit and hand the hammer to Hakeem Jeffries, a 50-year lawmaker from Brooklyn-Queens throw away from the President's Childhood House.
Democrats still have a call for power, but they are neutered by repeated attempts to pull anything from the president. In the summer before the 2020 presidential election, the conservative majority of the Supreme Court made Trump virtually irresistible by a 5-4 decision overturning his initial Watergate decision against Richard Nixon and instead embraced a wide range of presidential executive powers.
The focus for the House of Legislators is shifting from alleged abuse of power and alien interference in US elections to something not as spicy as Trump's: neglect of federal agencies throughout his administration. While the Constitution does not have a double impeachment clause, Democrats are debating whether to hold their fire, even considering another attempt to remove him from office.
Of course, there is every way of campaigning to try again – it is from the harvest of freshman and sophomore Democrats who now have the largest bloc of votes in the House Conference. But Jeffries shortened talks by the summer of 2021, saying the party would not consider another impeachment after the mid-2022s – and only if there was a blue wave that triggered dramatic changes in the Senate. He says it makes no sense to fight again with a president who will not stop talking about his new term, or with Republicans who would not condemn the president in his first term, even after being presented with a "smoking cassette" audio cassette. , which was secretly hidden on an internal server of Trump's White House, which proposes to sell Alaska to Vladimir Putin in exchange for the help of Russian hackers to win a second term.
„Сега той е свободен да прави всичко, което иска, дори ако това очевидно е невъзможно престъпление защото те няма да отидат след него два пъти подред ", оплаква бившият представител на Кънектикът Крис Шейс, един от четиримата републиканци, които гласуваха срещу четирите статии на импийчмънт срещу Бил Клинтън през 1998 г.
С импийчмънт извън масата Тръмп се опитва да прекрати сделки с разделен Конгрес. Но той харчи политическия си капитал много по-бързо, отколкото негов те помощници искат. Най-накрая получава печалба от замяна на търговското споразумение в Северна Америка, което разкъса в първия си мандат. Но това е всичко. Демократите от Къщата разговарят с инфраструктурен пакет. Няма никъде близо до 60-те гласа на Сената, необходими за преработка на националните закони за лекарства с рецепта. Получените в резултат набивки и обвинения сред депутатите убиват шансовете за още по-големи асансьори. Програмите за реформиране на права се засилват по време на дебата за първия бюджет на Тръмп през втория му мандат. Цялостният имиграционен ремонт се отлага вследствие на мексиканските войски, които случайно откриват огън по американските си колеги извън Ел Пасо, произтичащото от това напрежение от Тръмп и консервативните медии предупреждават за керван от хиляди мигранти, който никога не се осъществи на границата.
Докато навлизаме по-нататък във втория мандат на Тръмп, виждаме, че той не губи всяка битка в Капитолия. Лидерът на мажоритарното мнозинство в Сената Мич Макконъл, избран през 2020 г. на седми мандат, продължава да играе ролята си за преработка на федералните съдилища. Републиканецът в Кентъки изчиства етажния календар, за да проведе гласове, потвърждаващи над 100 нови съдии с доживотни назначения в окръжните и апелативните вериги, а консерваторите се радват на перспективата за приятелски решения в продължение на десетилетия по въпроси като аборти, религия и екологични и трудова политика.
Върховният съд, Кларънс Томас и Самуел Алито, двама сътрудници на съдиите в своите средата на 70-те по времето на второто встъпване в длъжност на Тръмп, предпочете пенсиониране, вместо да рискува да бъде заменен от демократичен президент след 2025 г. Междувременно двамата останали назначени от Бил Клинтън съдии Рут Бадер Гинсбург и Стивън Брейер увеличават максимално своите сърдечно-съдови тренировки и приемат строги средиземноморски диети.
Тръмп всъщност не променя своите хаотични, изолационистки външнополитически инстинкти. Той изтегля всички американски войски от Афганистан и Ирак, въпреки резервите дори сред републиканците. В Сирия ISIS обяви втори халифат от съвремието. Той многократно заплашва да изтегли САЩ от НАТО, дори заповядва документите да бъдат съставени, но отстъпват, когато републиканците и демократите се обединят, за да хвърлят законодателни препятствия по пътя му. Той саблира дрънкалки относно тарифите с Китай за всичките четири допълнителни години, но никога не приключва търговска сделка с Пекин; до края на втория си мандат САЩ и Китай постигнаха почти схватки във все по-милитаризираното Южнокитайско море. Джаред Кушнер никога не освобождава втората половина от плана си за мир в Близкия изток. Иранската ядрена сделка се срива изцяло, въпреки че Техеран не рестартира веднага ядрената си програма, докато се опитва да възстанови икономиката си. За щастие на иранците Китай и Русия все повече са склонни да игнорират американските санкции и да им дадат финансов спасителен живот. Освен това няма пробив в преговорите за ядрено оръжие със Северна Корея, въпреки че Ким Чен Ун прави първото си посещение в Съединените щати и се присъединява към Тръмп и Денис Родман в двора на Обединения център за играта в Чикаго бикове.
Тръмп също прекарва времето си в размисъл за наследството си и кого иска да го замени в Белия дом. След като от месеци пуска намеци насаме, той накрая изпраща туит на 4 юли 2022 г., че не подкрепя президентските амбиции на Майк Пенс. "Страхотен човек, ТРЕМЕНДЕН ВЕП, но е време за красива НОВА КРЪВ", пише той. Марко Рубио, Тед Крус и Ранд Пол се оттеглят до Деня на труда и полето е изчистено, за да може Иванка Тръмп да вземе кандидатурата на партията 17 месеца преди някой да е участвал в какус или първичен.
Междувременно Тръмп поема пряк контрол над планирането на президентската си библиотека, което в разрез с традицията няма да включва действителни президентски документи, защото няма такива, които да са запазени. Той силно въоръжава Администрацията на общите услуги, за да напише договора за наем на хотела си в D.C. и казва на Конгреса, че няма да даде съгласие да прекрати едномесечно правителство, освен ако не измени вековния закон, ограничаващ ограниченията на височината на сградите в Капитолия. Когато противодействието приключи, строителството започва веднага върху ново 75-етажно допълнение към историческата сграда, която, когато приключи, ще гледа надолу към паметника на Вашингтон и останалата част от града.