LONDON – Prime Minister Boris Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament next month has sparked a new wave of confusion and confusion over Britain's already chaotic efforts to leave the European Union, leaving the question of where the UK will end up on October 31. , the day the country is scheduled to leave the block.
Mr. Johnson says he would prefer the UK to abandon a revised Brexit deal, but if it fails, it will go out anyway. His opponents vowed to eliminate any possibility of leaving without a deal that they thought would be economically terrible.
The following are the six most likely results leading up to October 31st.
1: Legislators Take a Fee
Members of Parliament do not agree much with Brexit, but the majority opposes what they consider to be a devastating 'leave without a deal' and would like to exclude it beyond borders. By stopping Parliament for a few crucial weeks, Mr Johnson made it difficult. But he also rewarded his opponents in action, and Joe Swinson, leader of the Liberal Democrats, hinted in an interview with the BBC that they could copy Mr Johnson using a mysterious procedure – she did not specify what – to stop the 'no deal Brexit. So don't count them yet.
2: Parliament's nuclear option
If they fail to pass legislation against a futile Brexit, lawmakers can resort to the ultimate weapon: a motion of no confidence, an ouster of Mr. Johnson from the office. At the moment, they don't seem to have the votes to download it. But even if they do, it may not solve their problem.
The law requires the creation of a new government within two weeks or a general election. One option could be the trustees' administration, which would likely request another Brexit delay to allow time for elections. The problem is that opposition leaders cannot agree on a prime minister. Jeremy Corbin, the natural choice to lead the Labor Party, is too left-wing and, as a lifelong critic of the European Union, he is distrusted by determined opponents of Brexit.
Many would prefer a more centrist figure – perhaps former Conservative Cabinet Secretary Kenneth Clark – as guardian. This will require Mr Corbin to agree to stand aside, as the motion of no confidence would not have succeeded without his support.
And even if that happens, Mr. Johnson has another trick up his sleeve that his supporters have repeatedly telegraphed. : He may refuse to resign and then schedule general elections in November, effectively forcing himself through Brexit without a deal. The dirty pool may leave deep marks in body politics. But there is nothing in the relevant law, the Urgent Parliaments Act, which requires the Prime Minister to withdraw immediately.
3: Early Elections
If lawmakers are to be able to quickly pass legislation banning unsuccessful Brexit before Parliament is shut down, Mr Johnson could try to remove them again by calling a general elections. That would be risky, but he should keep it anyway, since he has a working majority in Parliament with only one place, a margin too small for any government to comfort. If there are elections soon, it is likely Mr Johnson will run for champion of the people against Parliament's intention to hinder the pro-Brexit outcome of the referendum in 2016. One theory is that the election can be held on October 17, which will allow Mr Johnson – if he wins – the next day with a new mandate to attend the EU Summit.
But there can be a significant obstacle. To call elections, Mr Johnson will need the support of two-thirds of the House of Commons, so he will need opposition votes. The Labor Party wants an election but may demur if it thinks that instead of a quick vote, Mr Johnson wants to postpone it until the end of the Brexit deadline.
4: Leaving E.U. With Deal
No one seems to think this option is very likely. In the end, Parliament voted three times against a Brexit agreement negotiated by Mr Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May, and the European Union stubbornly refused to resume negotiations. But don't turn it off.
The critical date is October 17-18, when the bloc's leaders meet, providing last-minute negotiation (which is, in practice, the only way things are done there). If Brexit with a potential disaster is still possible, Mr Johnson could put a gun on the heads of European leaders to get a revised deal, and then put a gun on the heads of his deputies to take the measure. "Either you accept my new, revised Brexit agreement," he will say, or we're headed to the dreaded exit without a bargain.
5: Brexit without a deal
While Mr. Johnson is thought to be using the threat of an untidy exit as a negotiation tactic, it is also possible that he may actually be referring to what he says. If European leaders offer too little concessions for his liking, he can go out of his way without a deal, and given his limited parliamentary time, he may succeed. After all, this is the default option. This would allow Mr Johnson to unite Brexit supporters behind him in the general election either at the end of 2019 or in 2020. However, the risk is that economic chaos after an unsuccessful Brexit is derailed, making the elections unacceptable for him (and if things are bad enough, probably for the Conservative Party for years to come.)
6: Courts decide
Three cases have already been considered against Mr Johnson's decision to dissolve parliament. Experts believe that this is unlikely to succeed – although Gina Miller, fighting the Brexit, opposed such forecasts when she won a case against Mrs May's efforts to bypass Parliament when launching exit negotiations. She tries again.
But there may be other options to go to court. If Mr Johnson refuses to resign after losing a confidence vote and tries to hold the general election after Halloween, there will be a legal challenge. It may then be the judges, not the legislators, who have the deciding vote in the biggest peace decision for decades in Britain.