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Why pandemics come in waves and the reasons behind a more deadly second wave COVID-19



Researchers have noticed various mechanisms behind these wave phenomena in influenza pandemics – a viral mutation that causes increased transmission or delayed susceptibility of individuals; changes in behavior; population heterogeneity in which each wave propagates through one subgroup; diminishing immunity; etc.

The union government recently told the Madras Supreme Court that the jump in numbers was unexpected. The disease curve leveled off by December 2020, by January 2021 everything was fine and that preparatory measures had been taken for a long time.

India saw a sharp drop in cases in January and early February. Vaccines were also released. This made the people and the government insecure.

Meanwhile, the media focus has also shifted to a speedy economic recovery and the upcoming parliamentary elections. The general feeling was that strict traffic restrictions would be too costly in terms of economic recovery and that the worst was over.

The continued opening of the economy coincided with a decline in the number of cases, and despite increased mobility, new cases did not increase, reinforcing the feeling. Government priorities shifted, even when people were asked to maintain social distancing and wear masks, and so on.

Emergency measures, including special volunteer networks, COVID-1

9 special facilities have been reduced. The lower sense of urgency also affected the pace of the vaccination campaign. Moreover, the norms for distancing were rudely violated.

This did not change when the cases started to increase.

Looking back, we had to invest more in studying the emergence of new options. The new mutants of COVID-19 are more contagious. The strain in the United Kingdom showed 50% higher transmission; the L452R mutation, found in variant B1.671, first discovered in India, also has increased infectivity. We have yet to know more important details about mutations and how they interact with tests / drugs, etc.

There is a prevailing consensus that COVID-19 is an airborne infection, other than a droplet infection that is spread by coughing or sneezing.

In India, nearly 80-85% of the population is asymptomatic – the largest carrier of the virus. They can spread the virus by breathing / talking, especially indoors. That is why there are many cases in which all family members get sick.

People became complacent by following the instructions, and because the micro-containment areas (eg, containing only one floor instead of the entire building) were not as effective as the detention areas last year, indoor indoor scattering events increased. Contact tracking guidelines are also not strictly enforced.

On the other hand, the Election Commission of India expressed concern against the sensation from the media. Experts also signal that rumors and dissenters who spread lies about masks, social distancing, vaccines, etc., are ineffective.

It is also important to note that vaccines approved for emergency use in India do not block the transmission of the virus, but only help to reduce the severity of the disease. Therefore, people who have been vaccinated should continue to follow the guidelines of COVID-19.

Depending on the effectiveness of vaccination, viral mutations, herd immunity, etc., the possibility of subsequent waves and troughs cannot be ruled out. Constant changes in personal habits are needed, as well as healthcare reforms.


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